Bitcoin continues to show little appetite for a sustained rally and is trading flat. Last week, we saw prices climb from $63,500 to $74,000, but at the start of the new week, BTC fell back to $66,500. The first crypto is now rising again, which is entirely consistent with range behaviour. Traders can expect a sell signal to form near the upper border of the sideways channel on the 4?hour timeframe. Let me remind you that sell signals have higher priority in a downtrend.

Meanwhile, it has become known that the 20?millionth Bitcoin has been mined. With total issuance capped at 21 million, only 1 million coins remain to be mined and distributed — less than 5% of the total. It took roughly 17 years to mine 20 million coins, but experts estimate that mining the remaining 1 million will take at least 100 years. The reason is the "halving" — the programmed halving of miner rewards roughly every four years. To date, Bitcoin has experienced four halvings. The next halving is scheduled for April–May 2028.

Because the number of newly mined coins decreases every four years, the question arises: will Bitcoin need to roughly double every four years to keep mining profitable? Experts say that transaction fees will become miners' main source of revenue over time, but in our view, Bitcoin would have to continue growing at historical rates to prevent the miner count from declining. We believe tough times are ahead for Bitcoin. Remarkably, in 17 years, Bitcoin has not replaced fiat money yet, has not become a global means of payment or been adopted by central banks. By and large, it remains a highly volatile, high?risk investment.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues forming a full-fledged downtrend. We still expect a decline with a target of $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 no longer looks like the final stop. From POI areas, note only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, which is located quite far from the current price. On the 4?hour timeframe, we expect a new deviation of the upper band in the near term, as the price is moving toward it now.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

A downtrend is still valid in the daily timeframe. The key sell pattern was and remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and prolonged. Since its formation, Ethereum has already fallen about 55% (roughly $2,500). In the near term, we expect a corrective upswing, but the price is still stuck in a fairly narrow sideways channel within the downtrend. We can trade inside the range only from its borders. The most recent sell signal was a deviation of the upper band of the sideways channel at $1,892–$2,150. So, no wonder the price fell to the lower band. Now we expect the formation of new deviations.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure.

Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions.

FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.