Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since October of last year and shows no signs of an end to its decline, let alone a small recovery. There are no bullish patterns, no break of the downward structure, and none are expected in the near future. Thus, the quotes could drop very soon to $57,500. It is also worth mentioning other cryptocurrencies. Almost all of them continue to fall as well. While Ethereum, Solana, and a few more or less stable cryptocurrencies are simply declining along with Bitcoin, a whole horde of "junk cryptocurrencies," which have been languishing at the bottom of the market for years, is now trying to find a new bottom. The vast majority of altcoins are now trading at prices below $1, and the "altcoin season" has not yet arrived.

Recall that the "altcoin season" is a period when demand for Bitcoin decreases while demand for altcoins increases. This phenomenon is explained by capital beginning to flow from overvalued Bitcoin into undervalued altcoins. However, as we see, this model does not work in 2025-2026. Bitcoin continues to fall and pull the entire cryptocurrency market down with it, despite the cheerful statements from Michael Saylor and Cathie Wood that "soon Bitcoin will be worth $1.5 million."

What's the problem? After all, Bitcoin is "digital gold," and according to Cathie Wood, it is even better than gold. The problem is that Bitcoin does not possess intrinsic value, has not become a substitute for the dollar or fiat money in its 18 years of existence, is not a "hedge against inflation," has not become a medium of exchange or payment, and is highly volatile, being very susceptible to pumps and dumps. At any moment, Bitcoin can crash by 10-15%, and such a move will wash out a large number of traders of all kinds from the market. As a result, Bitcoin remains a high-risk investment toy, controlled by large capital and funds. When they buy (pump), the market goes up. When they sell (dump), the market goes down. And no fundamental justifications for such movements are necessary.

Recommendations for Trading BTC/USD:

Bitcoin is continuing to form a full-fledged downward trend. We continue to expect a drop to the target of $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. However, even the level of $57,500 no longer looks like a final stop. Among the POI areas for sales on the daily time frame, the last bearish FVG can be noted, which Bitcoin is still very far from reaching. There is also a bearish FVG on the 4-hour time frame, which gave a price reaction yesterday. It may now be too late to open new short positions, but we reiterate: there are no signs of a reversal.

Recommendations for Trading ETH/USD:

The downward trend continues to form on the daily time frame. The key sell pattern has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly time frame. As we warned, the movement provoked by this signal can be strong and long-lasting. Since its formation, Ethereum has already fallen by 55% or $2,500. In the short term, an upward correction could be expected, but the only bullish pattern on the 4-hour time frame has already been canceled. Instead, two bearish FVGs have been formed, which have a higher probability of generating sell signals in line with the trend. Targets for Ethereum extend down to the level of $1,400.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• CHOCH – break in the trend structure.
• Liquidity – liquidity, stop loss of traders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – area of price inefficiency. Prices pass through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, prices tend to return to and react to such areas.
• IFVG – inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it; instead, it impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
• OB – order block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position aimed at collecting liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.