Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Euro

The first test of the 1.1855 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 1.1855 coincided with MACD being in the oversold area, leading to the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by only 12 points.

In the second half of the day, key data on U.S. consumer inflation for January will be released, including the headline index and its core version, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. These figures are crucial for determining future market trends, especially in the context of Federal Reserve policy. A decline in the indicators is expected to put significant pressure on the dollar. This scenario would suggest a possible slowdown in inflation, which could, in turn, affect forecasts regarding further interest rate cuts. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations, this could support the dollar by strengthening the case for a tighter Federal Reserve policy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1874 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1905. At 1.1905, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A strong rise in the euro can only be expected after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1857 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1874 and 1.1905 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1857 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1823, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1874 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1857 and 1.1823 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.