Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.03.2026 - «No Kings!» in America, "Islamabad Gambit" in Middle East, IPO on Wall...

30.03.2026 11:31 AM

«No Kings!» in America, "Islamabad Gambit" in Middle East, IPO on Wall Street. Trader's calendar on March 30-31

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US financial markets have entered a perfect storm where investors have "nowhere to hide"... Stocks and bonds have begun to fall in sync. The loudest alarm signal was the collapse of Microsoft, whose shares plunged 24.3% since the start of the quarter — the worst performance for the company in 17 years. A comparable drawdown was last seen in the midst of the global crisis of 2008. Sentiment in the tech sector continues to deteriorate amid shocking news from OpenAI. Sam Altman's company unilaterally tore up agreements with Korean giants Samsung and SK Hynix, abandoning commitments to buy 40% of global DRAM capacity.

That step triggered a collapse in memory?chip prices and pushed the Nasdaq to new pre?weekend lows. Morgan Stanley also reported hedge funds closing long positions in key trades — memory, semiconductors and the AI complex. Against the backdrop of a protracted Middle East war and an intensifying US?China trade dispute, US stock indices are approaching the longest run of weekly declines since 2022. Yet, ambitious plans to reshape markets are being hatched in this chaos. Bloomberg reports that Anthropic is preparing the ground for an IPO in October 2026 with a potential valuation above $60 billion. At the same time, excitement is building around a possible listing by SpaceX.

With an expected valuation of $1.75 trillion, Elon Musk's company could radically reorder the world's corporate leaderboard. Traders are already arguing about the ticker — from the concise X to SPCX — stoking volatility in the prediction markets. The investing paradigm in AI is undergoing a fundamental shift. As Barron's notes, value is moving from end-user applications to infrastructure — the "picks and shovels" strategy. Investors increasingly back companies that:

provide compute power (like Nvidia)
operate cloud infrastructure
and perform chip packaging

Whoever controls the automation and digitalisation backbone — not just chatbot makers — will benefit. At the same time, the conflict between industry leaders OpenAI and Anthropic has turned into an open ideological confrontation. The Wall Street Journal frames it as a clash of polar strategies: Altman's aggressive commercialisation versus Dario Amodei's mission-driven, safety?centric approach. These disagreements concern not only transparency in research but also dictate the architecture of future models. The AI market is rapidly politicising, becoming a battleground for defence contracts and government procurement.

The choice between speed of deployment and risk tolerance is now the critical determinant of who will lead the industry during the post?war recovery. On US financial markets, a fundamental shift in expectations regarding Fed policy has occurred. The probability of a rate rise in 2026 is growing while the chance of a cut has effectively fallen to zero. Traders and institutions have abandoned hopes for easing and moved to a "wait and see" stance. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 96% probability the current 3.50%–3.75% range will hold at least until mid?year, and markets begin to price a moderate risk of a rise to 4.00% by autumn.

FOMC rhetoric confirms this conservative stance. The Committee intends to "carefully assess incoming data and the balance of risks" in the face of persistent inflation. Polymarket forecasts reinforce the hawkish picture:

a scenario of no rate cuts dominates;
the probability of even a single cut stands at just 25%

Investors no longer expect aggressive stimulus and are preparing for a prolonged period of tight but stable monetary policy. This dynamic has triggered a large?scale sell?off in bonds, driven by cautious Fed signals and rising oil prices.

The final factor worsened after the US temporarily suspended attacks on Iranian energy facilities. Paradoxically, that did not calm markets but raised uncertainty, forcing them to price in a risk premium. Experts note a qualitative change in the market environment. As HTX Research put it, the world has moved from an "risk appetite driven by cheap money" to a state best described as "the burden of high rates and shrinking liquidity." Assets with high risk profiles and projects that do not generate real cash flow are under the greatest pressure. Market attention is now fixed not only on US macro data but also on signals from the Bank of Japan that could trigger the next wave of global re-pricing.

The modern energy crisis is no longer just a question of gasoline prices. It has become a total paralysis of petrochemical value chains that permeate the global industry. The loss of 20–25% of production of base polymers in the Middle East will inevitably translate into a 40% shortage of finished goods due to a "missing ingredient" effect:

the market for plastics, rubber and synthetic fibres is hostage to technological interdependencies;
a shortage of butadiene, a by?product of oil cracking, has become a bottleneck for the tyre industry;
there are virtually no alternative global capacities, threatening not only auto manufacturing but thousands of rubber?technical products — from seals to medical tubing

The systemic nature of the catastrophe shows up in "loops of interdependence." A shortage of xylenes caused by the shutdown of cracking units blocks the production of plasticizers for PVC pipes. Lack of methanol hits resin production for plywood. Construction stops: no pipes, no formwork, no insulation. Industry does not exist in a vacuum — the manufacturing collapse is followed by paralysis in services:

transport
logistics
insurance

This energy shock, superimposed on industrial supply gaps, creates a destructive effect far larger than the crises of the 1970s–80s because of dramatically increased global integration.

Agriculture and textiles are on the front line of the blow. The world stands on the brink of a food crisis: a 20% loss of global fertilizer supply has already driven fertilizer prices 80–200% higher. Farmers in developing countries cannot physically buy the chemicals, which will cut grain yields by around 20% in the next crop cycle. WTO officials already warn of mass hunger risks in parts of the world. At the same time, the textile industry is dying: synthetic fibres (polyester, nylon, spandex) account for up to 70% of global textiles. For countries like Bangladesh, where textiles make up 85% of exports, this means a national catastrophe.

Global PMIs show a synchronised shock and sharply worsening business sentiment. Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US recession to 30%, and the White House team is urgently modelling the consequences of oil spiking to $200/bbl. A historically high budget deficit and rising public debt limit policy room for manoeuvre. Iranian strikes on critical assets like Bahrain's largest aluminium plant threaten base metals markets. Aluminium — needed from aviation to food packaging and solar panels — risks re-testing record highs and pushing the global economy into deep stagflation.

One month into full-scale hostilities in the Middle East, the Donald Trump administration is in strategic uncertainty. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has claimed optimistically that Washington is close to reaching its objectives without a ground invasion and that the conflict could be resolved in weeks. But behind those words lies a grave choice for the president:

escalate dangerously to decisively crush Tehran;
strike a deal to stop the catastrophic energy price rally

The reason this war still holds the world's attention is the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the systematic destruction of the region's energy infrastructure. Once Iran loses that leverage, it will cease to be of strategic interest, but as long as Tehran "has the world by the throat," the risk of a humiliating US capitulation is real. Pakistan has suddenly stepped forward as the main global mediator. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed Islamabad's readiness to host direct US?Iran talks in the coming days.

The initiative already has support from the UN, China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Gulf states, increasingly disappointed with the US's inability to guarantee their security, are looking to Beijing, making success in Pakistan critical to preserving American influence. Despite a willingness to negotiate, Trump's rhetoric remains aggressive. In an interview with the Financial Times, he said some 3,000 more Iranian targets should be struck and even floated the idea of seizing Kharg Island to control Iranian oil.

Domestically, the US situation has heated to the boiling point. A wave of mass protests under the slogan "No Kings" swept the country. Organisers claim 3,000 demonstrations, with traditionally Republican districts joining in for the first time. Americans' anger stems from a volatile mix:

aggressive ICE raids
the Iran war
soaring pump and food prices

A major rally in Minnesota featured figures such as Bruce Springsteen and Bernie Sanders, and Governor Tim Walz called Trump a "self-declared dictator."

Protests increasingly turn violent. In Florida, MAGA supporters clashed with demonstrators, and in Los Angeles, police used tear gas after marchers tried to storm a federal penitentiary. Rising social tension is already affecting US foreign policy decisions: Trump needs a quick result because his social credit is exhausted by sky-high pump prices and internal strife.

March 30

March 30, 8:00 / Japan / ** / Housing Starts in February / prev.: -1.3% / actual: -0.4% / forecast: -4.7% / USD/JPY – up In January 2026, the number of new housing starts in Japan decreased by 0.4%, showing the mildest decline in the past year and a half. Despite the third consecutive month of negative growth, the sector recorded:

a recovery in the construction of detached and prefabricated house
acceleration of "two-by-four" projects

A limiting factor was a nearly 5% drop in the for-sale housing segment, which offset the positive results from late last year. Overall sector resilience is supported by a slowdown in the rate of decline in the rental housing category. With the indicator expected to fall to -4.7% in February, the yen is likely to weaken.

March 30, 8:00 / Japan / ** / Construction Orders in February / prev.: 20.2% / actual: 5.7% / forecast: 3.0% / USD/JPY – up Construction orders in Japan increased by 5.7% year-on-year in January 2026. The current growth rate exceeds long-term averages, confirming continued investment activity in the country's infrastructure sector. Order dynamics serve as an important leading indicator for the construction industry, signaling stability in production cycles in the coming quarters. If February sees order growth slow to the forecasted 3.0%, pressure on the yen will increase.

**March 30, 12:00 / Eurozone / */ Economic Sentiment Index in March / prev.: 99.3 / actual: 98.3 / forecast: 96.5 / EUR/USD – down The Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 98.3 points in February 2026, retreating from three-year highs. Optimism weakened among manufacturers, construction companies, and service providers, with the sharpest decline observed in France. At the same time, sectors showing stability amid steady domestic demand included:

consumer
retail Rising inflation expectations among households and businesses underline persistent price pressures in the region. If the March index falls to the forecasted 96.5 points, the euro is expected to decline against the dollar.

March 30, 12:00 / Eurozone / ** / Consumer Confidence Index in March / prev.: 24.2 / actual: 25.8 / forecast: 32.0 / EUR/USD – up Eurozone consumer expectations for price growth rose to 25.8 points in February, up from 24.2 in January. The indicator exceeded historical averages, reflecting households' concern over persistent inflationary pressures. A rise in this measure signals pressure on real household incomes and may prompt the regulator to maintain tight financial conditions. Historically, stronger inflation concerns support the continuation of high interest rates. If the March index reaches the forecasted 32.0 points, the euro will strengthen against the dollar.

March 30, 12:00 / Eurozone / ** / Industrial Confidence Index in March / prev.: -6.8 / actual: -7.1 / forecast: -9.0 / EUR/USD – down The Eurozone industrial confidence index fell slightly to -7.1 points in February. The decline in overall sentiment was driven by weaker assessments of finished goods inventories at company warehouses. Despite this, managers remain positive regarding:

the export order book and
current production trends,

indicating the underlying resilience of the industrial sector. Overall, production expectations remain stable, supporting moderate activity in the manufacturing industry. If the index drops to the forecasted -9.0 points in March, the euro will weaken.

**March 30, 15:00 / Germany / */ Consumer Inflation Growth / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 1.9% / forecast: 2.6% / EUR/USD – down Germany's annual inflation rate slowed to 1.9% in February from 2.1% in January, confirming the trend of cooling prices.

The main driver of disinflation was the energy sector: gas, electricity, and fuel oil prices declined significantly.
The food segment also slowed (growth to 1.1% vs. 2.1% previously), as falling prices for oils and potatoes offset the rise in sweets. However, core inflation (excluding food and energy) remains "stubborn" at 2.5%, and the services sector continues to resist price cuts. If the March data confirms the forecasted jump to 2.6%, the euro could come under pressure due to the divergence from the current slowdown.

March 30, 17:00 / USA / ** / Texas Fed Business Activity Index in March / prev.: -1.2 / actual: 0.2 / forecast: 0.7 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up The Texas manufacturing activity index finally emerged from the "red zone" in February, rising to 0.2 points. While conditions appear more stable than breakthrough, the report contains notable highlights:

the wages and benefits index surged to 31.9 points, indicating intense competition for labor Manufacturers remain optimistic about future output, though supply chain uncertainties still loom. A rise in this regional indicator to the forecasted 0.7 points in March will provide strong support for the dollar index.

March 31

March 31, 2:01 / United Kingdom / ** / Shop Price Growth in March / prev.: 1.5% / actual: 1.1% / forecast: 1.3% / GBP/USD – up UK shop inflation slowed to 1.1% in February 2026, as retailers engaged in a real battle for customers, heavily promoting discounts in beauty and fashion categories.

Non-food items even slipped into mild deflation.
Food prices showed the weakest growth in four years due to declining global costs. Although households can breathe a little easier, budgetary pressures are still present. If the indicator rises to the forecasted 1.3% in March, it may trigger moderate pound strengthening on expectations of stabilized demand.

March 31, 2:50 / Japan / ** / Industrial Production Growth in February / prev.: 0.9% / actual: 0.7% / forecast: 1.0% / USD/JPY – down Japan's industrial production grew by 0.7% year-on-year in January. Growth rates remain modest compared to the historical average of 4.39%. Positive momentum persists, but Japanese factories continue to adapt to external shocks more slowly than investors would like. The deviation of actual data from forecasts underscores the fragility of industrial sector recovery. If the February figure reaches the forecasted 1.0%, it may support the yen.

**March 31, 2:50 / Japan / */ Retail Sales Growth in February / prev.: -0.9% / actual: 1.8% / forecast: 0.8% / USD/JPY – up The Japanese consumer finally "woke up": retail sales jumped 1.8% in January 2026, easily offsetting December's decline. This is the strongest surge since last summer, largely thanks to official Tokyo initiatives such as vouchers and tax incentives. Japanese spending focused mostly on cars and electronics, although gas stations and clothing stores remained quiet. Month-on-month growth was an impressive 4.1%—the fastest pace since pre-pandemic 2019. If February maintains the forecasted 0.8% growth, USD/JPY is likely to continue upward.

**March 31, 4:30 / China / */ Manufacturing PMI in March / prev.: 49.3 / actual: 49.0 / forecast: 50.0 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down China's industrial sector contracted again in February 2026: the official PMI fell to 49.0, missing expectations. Lunar New Year celebrations traditionally slow factories. But the issue runs deeper: export orders are declining (45.0), signaling weak global demand. Positive notes:

business optimism improved slightly (53.2) and
logistics efficiency increased

However, the sector has contracted for the second consecutive month. If the March index reaches the critical 50.0 mark, Brent oil may rise, and the yuan may strengthen.

**March 31, 9:00 / Germany / */ Retail Sales Growth in February / prev.: 1.5% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 1.0% / EUR/USD – down German retail grew 1.2% in January 2026, solid compared to the historical average of 0.61%. Although growth slowed slightly versus December, the result still exceeded market expectations. German consumers remain cautious but consistent, keeping the sector afloat after previous years' turbulence. If February growth slows to the forecasted 1.0%, it could trigger local euro weakness.

**March 31, 9:00 / Germany / */ Import Price Growth in February / prev.: -2.3% / actual: -2.3% / forecast: -2.1% / EUR/USD – up German import deflation remained at -2.3% in January. The main driver was a collapse in energy prices (oil and gas fell by nearly a quarter). Food prices also eased, with cocoa and grains becoming cheaper. However, intermediate goods, especially precious metals, rose sharply, resulting in an unexpected 1.1% monthly increase. This signals potential future inflationary pressure. If the trend holds at -2.1% in February, EUR/USD may find support.

**March 31, 9:00 / United Kingdom / */ GDP Growth in Q4 / prev.: 1.4% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 1.0% / GBP/USD – down The UK economy is likely to finish 2025 with a slowdown to 1.0%—the weakest growth in a year and a half. Multiple factors weighed on the economy:

trade conflicts with Trump
tax increases
large-scale cyberattacks on the auto industry Despite modest gains in services and manufacturing, overall business confidence is low as markets await the new budget from Rachel Reeves. If final data confirms the forecasted 1.0% growth, the pound is likely to weaken further.

**March 31, 12:00 / Eurozone / */ Consumer Inflation Growth in March / prev.: 1.7% / actual: 1.9% / forecast: 2.8% / EUR/USD – up Eurozone inflation returned to growth at 1.9% in February after January's lull. Main pressure comes from services and industrial goods, while energy prices are no longer falling as fast. Core inflation jumped to 2.4%, signaling the ECB that easing is premature. Within the bloc:

Germany cooled slightly
France and Italy accelerated again If March inflation reaches the forecasted 2.8%, a sharp euro strengthening is expected.

March 31, 15:30 / Canada / ** / GDP Growth in January (final) / prev.: 0% / actual: 0.2% / forecast: 0% / USD/CAD – up Canada's economy remained essentially flat in January, though December data was revised up to +0.2%, softening Q4's overall decline. Industrial and utility sectors performed well, offsetting energy sector weakness. Wholesale and finance sectors also contributed. However, if January confirms zero growth, USD/CAD may rise amid stagnation.

March 31, 16:00 / USA / ** / S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index in January / prev.: 1.4% / actual: 1.4% / forecast: 1.5% / USDX – up The US housing market continues to cool. In December 2025, prices rose modestly by 1.4%. With 2.7% inflation, real home values are falling for the second consecutive year. Chicago and New York remain positive, while previously overheated Sunbelt cities (Miami, Phoenix, Dallas) are in deep correction. Traders should watch the 1.5% mark in March—any overshoot could support the dollar as a sign of sustained demand.

March 31, 16:00 / USA / ** / Home Price Index in January / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 1.8% / forecast: -0.2% / USDX – down US single-family home prices (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) slowed to 1.8% YoY in December 2025, below November's 2.1% and far under the historical average of 4.58%. The market continues cooling from pandemic-era overheating. If January falls to -0.2%, the dollar index may continue to decline.

March 31, 16:45 / USA / ** / Chicago Business Activity Index in March / prev.: 54.0 / actual: 57.7 / forecast: 55.6 / USDX – down Chicago sets the pace! February's business activity index surged to 57.7, the sharpest increase since spring 2022. This is the second consecutive month of expansion, defying skeptics' expectations. The Windy City shows unexpected strength, but if the March index cools to 55.6, it may trigger a dollar correction.

March 31, 17:00 / USA / ** / Job Openings in February / prev.: 6.550M / actual: 6.946M / forecast: 6.850M / USDX – down US labor market showed resilience in January: JOLTS job openings rebounded from a five-year low to 6.946M. Despite growth, figures remain below post-pandemic highs, confirming a general slowdown in hiring. Hospitality and healthcare lead. If February falls to 6.850M, dollar pressure will increase.

March 31, 17:00 / USA / ** / Job Quits in February / prev.: 3.225M / actual: 3.100M / forecast: 3.000M / USDX – down Americans are quitting less frequently: voluntary quits dropped to 3.1M. This signals that workers are less confident in finding new jobs nearby, preferring to stay put. The figure is gradually approaching the historical average of 2.8M. A decline to 3.0M in February would be another argument against dollar strength.

March 31, 17:00 / USA / ** / Conference Board Consumer Confidence in March / prev.: 89.0 / actual: 91.2 / forecast: 88.0 / USDX – down Consumers felt more upbeat in February—the index rose to 91.2—but still below the 20-year "waterline" of 93. At these low levels, any positive surprise could encourage risk-on behavior (stock buying) at the expense of the dollar. If the March index falls to 88.0, it would confirm weak household optimism and pressure the US dollar.

March 31, 23:30 / US / API Crude Oil Stocks / prev.: 6.6M bbl / actual: 2.3M bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile US crude inventories continue to build, increasing by 2.3M barrels in the past week—the second consecutive weekly rise after a 6.6M jump earlier. The market expected a drawdown but received surplus supply, ensuring volatility in Brent prices.

Other events:

March 30, 17:30 / US / Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech / USDX
March 31, 3:30 / Australia / RBA Minutes from 17.03 Meeting / Rate – 4.10% / AUD/USD
March 31, 19:00 / US / Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speech / USDX
March 31, 22:00 / US / Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr Speech / USDX

Comments from key central bank officials usually trigger currency market volatility, as they can indicate future rate policy plans.